jaystellmach

2025 Blind Resumes – Power Outfielder

With 2025 Fantasy Baseball draft season either upon us, or quickly approaching, we all want to get the best value in our fantasy drafts. One way of assessing value draft picks is to strip away the names and examine the stats – whether the surface-level Roto stats, or the underlying metrics. Another name for thisContinue reading “2025 Blind Resumes – Power Outfielder”

2024 Bargain Bat: Max Kepler

Max Kepler is going outside the top 250 in NFBC average draft position (over the past 30 days his ADP is 284 in NFBC Draft Champions drafts). I’d consider taking him 100 spots earlier. Kepler started slowly in 2023, but he was one of MLB’s best hitters from late June on, and he ended upContinue reading “2024 Bargain Bat: Max Kepler”

Drew Waters: How Was He Good in 2022, and Can He Be Better in 2023?

In a recent 15-team draft-and-hold draft, I was picking at the end of round 35 and in need of a reserve outfielder. Drew Waters was still on the board at well past his ADP, and he seemed the most likely to have the opportunity for playing time, so I said, “welcome to the team, pickContinue reading “Drew Waters: How Was He Good in 2022, and Can He Be Better in 2023?”

I Hate the Mitch Garver Trade

As a Twins fan, I love Mitch Garver, and I hate the Mitch Garver trade to the Texas Rangers for Isaiah Kiner-Falefa (and MiLB RHP Ronny Henriquez), but I (maybe) see how it makes sense for the team, especially if they have faith in Ryan Jeffers’ taking a step forward with the bat in 2022. Continue reading “I Hate the Mitch Garver Trade”

Drafting Vlad: a (Very) Small Case Study

Vladimir Guerrero was the top-ranked roto player in 2021. Thus far in NFBC Draft Champion (DC) drafts (15-team, 50-round draft and hold format, with an overall contest in addition to league prizes) his average draft position (ADP) rank is pick 7 (ADP 6.56) (after Trea Turner, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jose Ramirez, Juan Soto, Bo Bichette,Continue reading “Drafting Vlad: a (Very) Small Case Study”

Alex Kirilloff: 2021 Barrel-direction outlier, and 2022 breakout?

In Alex Kirilloff’s injury-shortened 2021 season, he barreled 21 batted balls. None of those 21 were extremely pulled: one went to straight-away rightfield, and the rest were oppo or right-center to left-center. In a full season of at bats, odds are Kirilloff yanks a few more barrels to rightfield, but in his 200+ AB 2021,Continue reading “Alex Kirilloff: 2021 Barrel-direction outlier, and 2022 breakout?”

Mr. ADP 361, Evan Longoria

Let’s look at the MLB top ten third basemen for 2021, minimum 250 plate appearances. Included in the table is the NFBC Draft Champions ADP for the most recent 30 days (40 DC drafts). ADP G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wRC+ 1 3.75 152 636 36Continue reading “Mr. ADP 361, Evan Longoria”

A Young Twins Outfielder Hits the Ball Hard

The Minnesota Twins have a lefty-hitting outfielder that had a pretty good 2021 rookie season with the bat. He only received a bit over 200 at bats, but he showed he could sting the ball, with a Statcast hard hit rate greater than 44%. His maximum exit velocity was not elite, but it exceeded 108Continue reading “A Young Twins Outfielder Hits the Ball Hard”

Will the Twins “Rays It Up” in 2022?

A Roundabout Explainer on a top 150 Pick for Mitch Garver. Or: after trading Nelson Cruz to the Rays last year, it makes a bunch of sense for the Twins to try to be a bit more like the Rays this year. One can only take on so much risk in a draft, but IContinue reading “Will the Twins “Rays It Up” in 2022?”

2022 Fantasy Baseball Season

Are we ready for this? Projection season is upon us, and some of it is weird, especially with playing time so up in the air for some teams due to the lockout. With some trepidation, it is time to try this again. … In 2021 I had the best intentions of getting a fantasy baseballContinue reading “2022 Fantasy Baseball Season”