2025 Blind Resumes – Power Outfielder

With 2025 Fantasy Baseball draft season either upon us, or quickly approaching, we all want to get the best value in our fantasy drafts.

One way of assessing value draft picks is to strip away the names and examine the stats – whether the surface-level Roto stats, or the underlying metrics. Another name for this process – the “Blind Resume.” 

I have completed one NFBC 50-round draft-and-hold draft so far this year, and I am in the process of three more.  In all of them I have struggled to feel confident in my five starting OF slots, but this has led me to dive fairly deeply into the post-300 ADP outfielder pool.

This has led me to this first blind resume comparison of 2025 – a post-300 ADP outfielder versus a top 170 pick (ADP is from 12/13/24 through 1/12/25 – 43 combined NFBC 50s and Draft Champions). Stats are from Fangraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Reference.

2024 5×5 Roto comparison:

	BA	HR	R	RBI	SB	PA
Player A	0.242	24	77	69	9	561
Player B	0.259	15	59	52	4	400

Non-Roto Results:

	BB%	K%	SLG	OBP	OPS	WRC+
Player A	9.3%	30.7%	0.447	0.321	0.768	120
Player B	10.0%	22.3%	0.434	0.338	0.771	121

Roto, per 500 plate appearances:

	BA	HR	R	RBI	SB
Player A	0.242	21	69	61	8
Player B	0.259	19	74	65	5

I could split hairs here and say that Player B’s results seem slightly better, per PA (despite Player A’s SB advantage); but realistically these are equivalent results per PA, but with Player A having 161 more PAs.

The results are the same, per PA, but what about the skills? As it turns out, these guys could be twins (one of them already his. Hint, hint…):

	BABIP	GB/FB	LD%	GB%	FB%	IFFB%	HR/FB
Player A	0.317	1.109	0.173	0.435	0.392	0.016	0.186
Player B	0.304	1.180	0.187	0.440	0.373	0.040	0.150

	Pull%	Cent%	Oppo%	Soft%	Med%	Hard%	EV
Player A	0.400	0.352	0.248	0.106	0.527	0.367	90.485
Player B	0.414	0.354	0.231	0.093	0.522	0.384	92.021

	EV50	LA	Barrel%	maxEV	HardHit%	xBA	xSLG
Player A	101.800	12.975	0.136	113.593	0.452	0.234	0.449
Player B	102.400	12.439	0.101	113.190	0.451	0.266	0.476

So that was last year. What about 2025 projections? Unsurprisingly, they are super close, at least on a rate basis.

Steamer 600:

	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR
Player A	142	600	522	126	24	2	22
Player B	142	600	526	127	25	2	21

	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB
Player A	73	73	64	174	9
Player B	72	73	65	160	5

	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG
Player A	10.70%	29.00%	0.179	0.314	0.241	0.331	0.420
Player B	10.80%	26.70%	0.177	0.304	0.242	0.328	0.419

Still no real separation (beyond a few more SBs for Player A).

Player A was a somewhat greater prospect, but both players were top prospects.  Both are lefthanded hitters. 2024 was Player A’s first full season and he has 618 career PAs, whereas Player B first got consistent MLB time in 2021 (but he has just 1093 career PAs).

So, enough with the background. It may not be obvious who these two are yet, but the clear thing is that Player A was nearly a full-time player in 2024, and Player B is a lefthanded platoon bat.

Trevor Larnach has not hit LHP at all in MLB, and he barely got the chance to try to last year, and nobody is, or should be, taking Larnach over Colten Cowser. But especially in an NFBC 50-round draft and hold, with Monday and Friday lineup changes for hitters, Larnach seems overlooked right now, and is a bargain at his current ADP (around 350).  As perhaps a fairer comparison, Larnach’s role is identical to Alec Burleson’s for STL, with Burleson going around 140 picks earlier (based on sprint speed and career norms, Burleson’s 9 SBs in 2024 seem to be a mirage, btw). Burleson is a better bet for batting average (0.272 Steamer Projection), but the adjustments Larnach made last year mostly stick, he should easily beat his 0.242 BA Steamer projection.

As for Cowser, his playing time seems locked in, but is it, and should it be? He’s four years younger than Larnach, so maybe he improves versus LHP. And the Orioles seem to like his LF defense, so that does help. But his platoon splits aren’t great (about 10% worse than the average MLB LHH) (and were even more extreme in MiLB, despite his versus-LHP OBP being buoyed by his insane MiLB walk rates):

MLB Splits	PA	AB	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
vs RHP	483	419	19	55	141	0.232	0.327	0.430	0.757
vs LHP	155	141	5	10	53	0.220	0.284	0.369	0.653

MiLB Splits	PA	AB	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
vs RHP	900	730	33	148	219	0.312	0.439	0.537	0.976
vs LHP	274	223	5	35	85	0.251	0.379	0.372	0.751

It is well known that 155 MLB PAs is not enough sample to know how Cowser’s platoon splits will progress, and he could improve versus LHP (and should, at least a minor amount, as regression toward league average would help him slightly). But there is no basis to expect a large improvement.

Is there some platoon-related playing time risk for Cowser despite his prospect status and his assumed plus defense (btw, it seems most metrics peg him as closer to average rather than plus). With the Orioles’ crowded roster, the risk seems non-trivial to me. Especially given that you know who does not seem to have much trouble with LHP? Heston Kjerstad.

Splits (Total, MiLB + MLB)	PA	AB	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
vs RHP	702	603	34	73	156	0.295	0.376	0.541	0.917
vs LHP	268	236	9	16	55	0.292	0.358	0.487	0.845

Just 17 of Kjerstad’s 268 vs-LHP PAs have occurred in MLB. Only 12% of his MLB PAs have been versus LHP, whereas Cowser has been given the opportunity to have 24% of his MLB PAs be versus LHP. This, despite Kjerstad’s having produced far better than Cowser versus LHP in MiLB (whatever the surface metric one chooses e.g., batting average, contact ability, and ISO slugging).

I don’t expect it, but it would not be shocking if Kjerstad is getting more ABs than Cowser by the end of the 2025 season.

The takeaways:

1. Cowser is no sure thing for full-time ABs, and great improvement versus LHP should not be expected.
2. Kjerstad is a worthy pick at his ADP (about 340), with the potential for nearly full-time ABs even if the Orioles don’t trade him or Cowser.
3. Despite his certain platoon status, draft Trevor Larnach in NFBC 15-team formats and all deep draft-and-holds, and as an early reserve round OF in 12-team FAAB leagues.
4. (Bonus) Check out Tyler O’Neill’s 2024 splits versus RHP. Yikes. One-year splits are not worth that much, but until the Orioles trade some of their Lefthanded-hitting depth, I am fading Tyler O’Neill (ADP ~180). In addition to his long injury history, the Orioles may have better options versus righthanded pitching.