Max Kepler is going outside the top 250 in NFBC average draft position (over the past 30 days his ADP is 284 in NFBC Draft Champions drafts). I’d consider taking him 100 spots earlier. Kepler started slowly in 2023, but he was one of MLB’s best hitters from late June on, and he ended up with a career-best 12.2%-barrel rate, while maintaining an acceptable 21.6% K-rate. Despite still decent speed (27.4 ft/sec (52nd percentile)) he won’t steal bases (1 SB last year), but he should provide four-category production (well, let’s hedge a bit on batting average and say 3.5-category production) for 2024.
Kepler has had two years with a WRC+ greater than 120, his 36-HR 2019 (122) and 2023 (124). He was good in the shortened 2020 season (109 WRC+), bad in 2021 (97 WRC+) and even worse in 2022 (95 WRC+), when despite his lowering his already good K% to 15%, his groundball rate ballooned to 46% while his HR/FB rate fell to 8% – frankly, he looked done in 2022, or at least completely out of whack. What made his 2023 production more like (much, much more like) his 2019 rather than his 2020-2022?
In 2022 Kepler’s production on fly balls was bad. Very bad. Out of 351 players with at least 50 batted ball events, his 55 WRC+ was 291st (17th percentile). In 2023: his 176 WRC+ was in the 68th percentile out of 361 players with 50 batted ball events. Of note, number one on that list? Kepler’s teammate, Edouard Julien, at an insane 501 WRC+… now, that is both unsustainable, and something that needs to be examined further, some other time.
While 68th percentile on flyball production is not elite, it is very good, with cohorts like Mookie Betts and Eloy Jimenez. As an aside, Kepler also flip-flopped his production on groundballs, from the 32nd percentile in 2022 to the 81st percentile in 2023. So, he was better, much better, all-around, on contact in 2023. He was locked in, for much of the year (his OPS from June 20 through the end of the year was .913). From just my anecdotal observation, he was swinging harder and with more purpose than in 2022. Aside from just swinging with greater intent, Kepler’s process was notably different in 2023, as he was more aggressive in the zone (increasing his zone swing rate from 71.7% (basically average) to 74.3% (somewhat aggressive)), and far more successful, despite his walk rate dropping from 11% to 9.2% and his K% increasing from 14.8 to 21.6 (the highest strikeout rate of his career, and his lowest walk rate since 2017).
Searching Baseball Savant, when Kepler put a middle-middle pitch in play in 2022, it resulted in a .200 wOBA, versus a wOBA of .391 on such pitches in 2023. And while he was somewhat unlucky in 2022 (his middle-middle xwOBA was .323) his 2023 results were backed up by the underlying metrics (xwOBA: .432, launch angle increase from 10.5 degrees to 16.4 degrees, and average exit velocity increase from 93 mph to 96 mph).
Overall, Kepler’s increased in-zone swing rate was mostly on inside pitches (4% greater swing rate in 2023) (with similar results in 2023 versus 2022, but much better underlying metrics in 2023); on middle-middle pitches Kepler swung at around the same rate; but he was pitched more often middle (excluding middle-middle) and away (3% more often in 2023), but swung less often on such pitches (70.4% in 2023 versus 73.9% in 2022), and had better results (.388 wOBA in 2023 versus .281 wOBA in 2022).
The tradeoff for Kepler’s change in swing decisions was his taking more pitches away for strikes (15 in-zone away pitches taken for Ks in 2023, versus 7 in 2022), and the tradeoff for his swinging harder was more swinging strikeouts (41 in 446 plate appearances in 2022 and 75 in 491 plate appearances in 2023, a 48% increase in his in-zone swinging K-rate, and a 78% increase in his out-of-zone swinging K-rate).
In 2023 Kepler was off to a decent start, prior to injuring his hamstring and going on the injured list on May 13 (a .232 ISO, with a .206 BABIP dragging down his overall line). He returned from the IL, without a minor league rehab assignment, on May 29 and proceeded with a .143 / .177 /.204 triple slash line over his next 51 plate appearances, leaving him with a .189 / .261 / .365 triple slash prior to his .913 OPS from June 20 on. One probably shouldn’t project him for a .900 OPS, or his .290 batting average through that hot end of season phase, but that is what he did over his final 326 plate appearances.
If Kepler stays healthy and maintains acceptable production versus lefthanded pitchers, he should hit in the middle of the Twins lineup and start most games, even versus most lefthanders – a 30-HR, 90-Run and 90-RBI season is a possibility. Projection systems are going to bake in Kepler’s bad 2021 and horrible 2022. Fangraphs Depth Charts projects him for 573 PAs, but just 24 HR with 72 Runs and 76 RBIs (and a .250 BA). I will take the over on the BA right now, and if he stays healthy and gets those 573 PAs, I think he easily surpasses both the Runs and RBIs. He is definitely a top pick for someone going outside the top 250 who could produce top 100 value.
Jay Stellmach's Fantasy Baseball Musings 