As a Twins fan, I love Mitch Garver, and I hate the Mitch Garver trade to the Texas Rangers for Isaiah Kiner-Falefa (and MiLB RHP Ronny Henriquez), but I (maybe) see how it makes sense for the team, especially if they have faith in Ryan Jeffers’ taking a step forward with the bat in 2022.
First, here is something I wrote about Garver about six weeks ago:
- He, if healthy all year, could be a top 100 player (and is especially worth the risk of a top 10 round pick in any deep draft and hold format). Yes, he was horrible in 2020. He has been hurt. A lot. He is already 31 years old. He was very good in 2021 but he did strike out a bit last year despite his overall impressive numbers. I get all that, and I get that projection systems need to bake all that history and risk in. But he is a catcher with a career 122 WRC+ and a .238 isolated slugging percentage (setting a minimum of 1000 PAs, his WRC+ is 55th among all hitters since 2017). Going back to his debut, he is a better hitter than Salvador Perez (and it isn’t particularly close). If we limit things to 2019-2021, there is a clear top four at the catcher position based on WRC+ (Will Smith and Garver at 135, Perez at 134, and Yasmani Grandal at 132, with a chasm between them and the next group starting at 115 WRC+). Perez is a beast, and will play every day, so I am not arguing that Garver is a better fantasy option in the year 2022. But Garver is really, really good, and it would not shock me if he were the best catcher in fantasy on a per game basis this year.
So, yeah, I like Garver a lot. Garver’s career WRC+ is 122. Jeffers’ is 88. The odds of Jeffers’ being a better hitter than Garver in 2022 are really, really low. But the Twins love Jeffers’ defense, and they think he is potentially at least a league average bat. Catchers have a reputation for often taking a long time to fully develop has hitters, and Jeffers has less than 1200 total professional plate appearances (the equivalent of about two full-time MLB seasons), and just 557 PAs above A-ball (including his 355 MLB PAs). Projection systems have him as about 10% worse than league average in 2022, so he could reasonably hold his own at the plate, with (hopefully) further development once he gets another season or two under his belt.
Regarding the fantasy baseball perspective, how does this trade impact the Twins lineup? Actually, not much, in my opinion. It is a boon for Jeffers, of course, but the other impacts are negligible (maybe a very minor overall downgrade to all Twins players as well?). Unless one was counting on a lot of playing time for Nick Gordon, the ripple effect is just not that big. The Twins were always planning on bringing in a shortstop, via free agency or trade, and had no intention of starting Jorge Polanco at SS (and were never going to give significant PAs to Gordon there either). So, beyond raising Jeffers’ starts from about 70 to about 120 (which is huuuge), there isn’t really much to analyze – maybe there will be a bump in expected PAs for Jose Miranda, as having Garver out of the picture opens up a bit more playing time at DH, but not much else.
For the Rangers, they suddenly really, really need a third baseman with Kiner-Falefa gone and Josh Jung likely out for the entire season. But the trade also means an upgrade for all Texas hitters, as Garver projects much better than their previous tandem of Jonah Heim (projected WRC+ of about 85) and Jose Trevino (about a 70 WRC+), and whatever third baseman they get will likely be a better hitter than Kiner-Falefa. Update: Andy Ibañez still exists. I did (sort of) remember that. Is he more than a lefty masher (maybe we’ll see)?
And what about Jonah Heim? I was pretty big on Heim for this year… Speaking of catchers taking some extra time to develop; he has just over 800 PAs at higher than A-ball, so there is plenty of time to see if his bat improves, especially since he is a switch hitter. And he has had an amazing trend of vast improvement once he repeats a level: A-ball: 74 WRC+ for first 157 PAs, 112 WRC+ for last 321 PAs; High A: 75 WRC+ for first 437 PAs, 113 WRC+ for last 348 PAs; AA: 29!!!!! WRC+ for first 154 PAs; 125 for last 208 PAS (followed by WRC+ of 135 in 119 AAA PAs in the same season). The dude has potential, but this trade likely tanks Heim’s fantasy value for 2022, barring another trade, or unless the Rangers slot Garver in as the primary DH versus LHP and therefore still get Heim about half-time PAs. This seems unlikely, as the Rangers had ten players get at least five DH starts last year; but if Heim hits, at least there is still the possibility he gets 300+ PAs.
Circling back to the Twins to wrap this up. The Twins would project a couple wins better for 2022 if they had swung a deal using some of their abundant MiLB pitching depth for a shortstop, or through signing a free agent, and hanging on to both Garver and Jeffers. Mitch Garver (when healthy) is great; he was maybe the second-best hitter on the team, so for a Twins fan, this trade is a tough pill to swallow. But Jeffers is only 25, and Garver is 31. Kiner-Falefa is only 27 and has the same amount of team control as Garver; the Twins also received Ronny Henriquez, who seems like maybe a top 200 prospect (Fangraphs has slotted him in as #9 in the Twins system, with a 45 future value). And Kiner-Falefa’s positional versatility will allow him to slide to third base if the Twins trade Josh Donaldson and bring up Royce Lewis this year or next; or he could be a functional utility piece for them. I wouldn’t have made the trade, but it does make some sense. I hope.
Jay Stellmach's Fantasy Baseball Musings 