Vladimir Guerrero was the top-ranked roto player in 2021. Thus far in NFBC Draft Champion (DC) drafts (15-team, 50-round draft and hold format, with an overall contest in addition to league prizes) his average draft position (ADP) rank is pick 7 (ADP 6.56) (after Trea Turner, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jose Ramirez, Juan Soto, Bo Bichette, and Gerrit Cole (ADP 6.51)). It is a marginal change, but he is trending down, I that his ADP was ahead of Cole’s in DC drafts dated up through 2/18/2022. In drafts dated prior to 1/1/22 Vlad’s ADP was 6.10 and Cole’s was 7.88; since 1/1/22 Vlad’s ADP has been 6.80 (Cole: 5.81), and since 2/1/11 Vlad’s has been 7.29 which is much closer to Corbin Burnes’ ADP (8.00) than Cole’s during that span (5.17).
So why is last year’s #1 player going outside the top 6 picks, and trending (slightly) downward? Breaking no news here: it his Vlad’s lack of stolen bases. The ATC projection for Vlad’s SBs is 3. For the five hitters going prior to Vlad in DC drafts their average projection is 23 SBs (Soto projects for 11, but also for an even better wOBA than Vlad; removing Soto from the mix, the other four players project for an average of 26 SBs).
And it isn’t just the hitters taken before Vlad. Out of top 25 hitters in February DC ADP, only two are projected for fewer SBs than Vlad: Yordan Alvarez (1 SB, 31.63 ADP) and Salvador Perez (1 SB, 38.51 ADP). Outside of Alvarez and Perez, just three other of the top 25 hitters are projected for fewer than 10 SBs (Mike Trout, Freddie Freeman, and Rafael Devers). The average SB projection for the 19 hitters after Vlad in ADP is 16 SBs. One can slice this any number of ways, but the simple point is that at the top of the draft SBs are at a premium. They are at such a premium, there has been some chatter in the fantasy baseball community regarding whether it is worth it to draft Vlad in the first round. Time will tell regarding that, but what can be examined right now is how folks have been building teams with Vlad as their #1 pick.
This draft season I have been in three DCs and three NFBC 50s (50 round draft and hold, but 12 teams, and with the overall contest far less pertinent than the league prizes). Let’s take a look at the first ten rounds for the Vlad teams in the three DC drafts, to see how each fantasy manager addressed SBs (and pitching) (I will cover the NFBC 50s in the next post).
DC 1: I had pick 11, so I did not have a shot at Vlad (pick 7). The Vlad drafter came back with SP Brandon Woodruff in round two, got their SB base with Cedric Mullins in round three, 10 or so SBs from the catcher position in round four with Realmuto, and another 10+ SBs from India in round 6. Maybe a few chip-in SBs from Springer, and likely negligible SBs from Correa. Backing up Woodruff, they filled out their SP 2-4 with some nice upside SPs. A pretty good build that could get close to 10 SBs per hitter, and a nice SP rotation. The downside: zero closers — they did grab their first two closers in rounds 12 (Scott Barlow) and 14 (Matt Barnes); both have their appeal, but neither is a sure thing as a locked-in closer.
DC 2: I had pick 8, and so I missed out on Vlad, who again went at pick 7. The Vlad drafter came back with SP Jacob deGrom in round two, got their SB base with Starling Marte in round three, 5-10 chip-in SBs from Bogaerts and maybe a few from Maybe a few from Springer, and 12-15 from Yelich. And zero or so from Lourdes Gurriel. Backing up deGrom with young upside: Trevor Rogers as their SP and Logan Gilbert as SP3. They grabbed Malancon as their top RP in round 8 to lock down what should be a safe 25 Saves. The hitters again could get close to 10 SBs per spot, and while the SPs have upside there is a fair amount of risk. Seems a bit of a boom or bust approach
DC 3: I had pick 6, so I decided to pick Vlad (not knowing if I’d get another good chance to get him anywhere). I got my 27-SB base with Cedric Mullins in round 2, and then Tim Anderson was still there at pick 36, so I decided to add his 19 SBs and well-rounded line to my team. I then followed that up with power bats Austin Riley and Will Smith. No pitchers to this point, and it obviously impacted the rest of my draft. For the Anderson pick, I passed on Freddy Peralta, Lucas Giolito, Robby Ray, and second-tier closers. For the Riley pick, I passed on Chris Sale, Max Fried, and Lance Lynn. For the Smith pick, I passed on Joe Musgrove, Jack Flaherty, Dylan Cease, Logan Webb, Frankie Montas, and Jose Berrios… yikes. I sort of regret passing on Fried, but with the next pick, I was pretty sure I’d be ok with the SP that made it back to me; and the last one in that tier for me did (Gausman), so that worked out. In hindsight, I am not in love with the McClanahan pick, but all my true targets in that range were gone (four SPs and three RPS went in the ten picks between Gausman and McClanahan). After that, I felt good about my batting average at that point, so I went with the versatile 10-15 SB Chris Taylor in round 8. After passing on Melancon, Corey Knebel, and Craig Kimbel in round 8, all the sure-thing closers were gone by round 9 (and that is an iffy label for Knebel and Kimbrel anyway), so I got my one share of Camilo Doval in round 9 (I handcuffed him with Jake McGee in round 17 and Tyler Rogers in round 41). And in round ten I went with Eduardo Rodriguez to shore up my suspect SP roster to that point (I also got my one share of Ranger Suarez in round 11). I should average a bit over ten SBs per spot for my top six hitters, and my power and batting average should be above average. The obvious downside to this team is its lack of ace SPs and my rolling the dice on RPs; but I did draft 14 SP total, so if my top three SPs do come through (and if I can get 30+ saves elsewhere in addition to my hopefully covering the SF bullpen), this team should do pretty well.
Each of these three Vlad drafts have some positives and some negatives. The first kept pace with needed SBs and has great SP upside (with some risk), but no locked-in saves. The second again did ok with SBs but seemed to really lean into high risk/reward, despite locking in 25 saves with Melancon. The third (my Vlad draft) ended up with the most assured SBs, as well as solid hitting overall, but I was somewhat gambling on my hitting on a few middle and late SP and RP targets.
Overall, in this very small set of three DCs, I don’t get the sense that any of the three Vlad drafters were hamstrung by Vlad’s lack of SBs. Each drafter seemed aware of the need to get their SBs, and at least kept up with a reasonable target for SBs, but none of the three strategies appear overly impacted by SB scarcity.
Jay Stellmach's Fantasy Baseball Musings 