2021 Semi-deep Dive #2 – Whit Merrifield

Whit Merrifield was kind of bad versus fastballs in 2020. Am I worried? Yeah, maybe a little.

There has been a fair amount of skepticism regarding Merrifield as a good Roto pick at his current ADP (around pick 35-40), and I really like Merrifield as a fantasy asset, so my reflexive response when I hear Merrifield skepticism on a podcast or read it somewhere is to basically blow it off: He’s old and slowing down? Maybe, but maybe not, and in any case, he is still fast, and besides a weird stretch in 2019, he is a legit 80% base stealer… He doesn’t hit the ball hard? Big deal! He never has, and he has been super-consistent in his exit velo and launch angle, and his metrics in 2020 were not that different. Oh, but they were. So, this will not be a post about Merrifield’s SBs (short version of that post: if he hits ok, he will steal 25-30 bags, maybe more, if he is feeling frisky), but it will delve, semi-deeply, into his 2020 batted ball stats.

In his career Whit Merrifield has been a pretty consistent hitter, with mediocre exit velocity and good, and consistent, launch angles. This could go into a lot of detail, but let’s not: take it as a given that year-to-year, 2016-2019, things were pretty close, and his year-to-year differences in home runs and BABIP seem to come mostly down to luck. Maybe there is more to it, but I couldn’t figure it out in a couple hours of looking.

So, his Statcast line for 2016-2019:

ba	iso	babip	slg	woba	xwoba	xba	launch_speed	launch_angle
0.296	0.149	0.340	0.445	0.337	0.335	0.280	87.3	15.9

That’s not bad. He’s a pretty good hitter. Does not hit the ball very hard, but he gets the job done. We already knew that. In general, why it works for Merrifield, or did from 2016-2019, is that he doesn’t pound too many balls into the ground, and his balls in play are spread pretty evenly from -5 degrees to 35 degrees launch angle (and, at least somewhat, around the field), and he ends up around 15 degrees average launch angle – a little of this, a little of that, and it works for his moderate (at best) power.

Here is his 2020 Statcast line:

ba	iso	babip	slg	woba	xwoba	xba	launch_speed	launch_angle
0.282	0.157	0.295	0.440	0.324	0.324	0.292	85.6	15.3

That looks pretty much the same. End of post? Nope. Launch angle is the same. Woba is basically the same. Slg, too, etc. But not BABIP, and not launch speed. Before I looked into it, I simply chalked this up to Covid-related short season weirdness. And, in the end, that of course could be a factor. But his iso and slg (and thus his woba) are propped up by his increased homerun rate: 49 PA per HR prior to 2020, and 29 PA per HR in 2020. His other extra base hits were way down in 2020. He legit hit HRs at a decent rate (and 8/9 of the HRs were mashed (one wall-scraper in Detroit) – maybe they were “Merrifield mashed” (96 mph to 105.5 mph), but they were not wall scrapers… he pulled them, and there is one clue). When he hit a ball hard in the air, he pulled it, often for a HR, and otherwise? Not so great.

Merrifield earned his 2020 HRs, but maybe not in a particularly sustainable way. Six of his nine HRs were hit between 98 mph and 102 mph. One was hit at 105.5 mph (his hardest-hit ball of 2020), one was hit at 95.5 (the Detroit wall-scraper), and one was hit at 96.5. All were pulled at between -35 degrees and -15 degrees. If you look at Right-handed batters in 2020, and limit the results to this concocted “Whit Zone”, Merrifield is the leader in HRs:

Whit Zone %	player_name	HR_Tot	Whit Zone HRs
100.0%	Whit Merrifield	9	9
31.8%	Luke Voit	22	7
58.3%	Renato Nunez	12	7
50.0%	Wilmer Flores	12	6
31.3%	AJ Pollock	16	5
45.5%	Brian Anderson	11	5
31.3%	Pete Alonso	16	5
25.0%	Adam Duvall	16	4
66.7%	Albert Pujols	6	4
40.0%	Andrew McCutchen	10	4
44.4%	Anthony Rendon	9	4
40.0%	Edwin Encarnacion	10	4
80.0%	Garrett Hampson	5	4

Merrifield was harvesting, like a Brian Dozier (with less power), or a late-career Ian Kinsler. Speaking of Kinsler, here is the 2017 “Whit Zone” table:

Whit Zone %	player_name	HR_Tot	Whit Zone HRs
95.5%	Ian Kinsler	22	21 (yikes!!)
58.8%	Brian Dozier	34	20
51.4%	Nolan Arenado	37	19
75.0%	Zack Cozart	24	18
78.9%	Kurt Suzuki	19	15
78.9%	Whit Merrifield	19	15

I digress, but only sort of. Two things: 1: Merrifield has always hit his HRs this way – that should be expected, as a low-power RHH; he just took it to extremes in 2020. 2: If Merrifield is morphing into late-career Kinsler, that is not a good thing (or into Zach Cozart, for that matter).

Is all this just not a big deal? Maybe, because, like I just wrote: Merrifield just took his homer approach to an extreme in a short season sample. In a longer season, maybe he stumbles into an oppo HR or two, or blasts one to, god forbid, at least somewhere to center of left-center. Compare his 2020 and 2019 airball extra base hit spray charts:

2019: predominately doing his extra base damage to left, but a decent smattering to center, right-center, and right. 2020? Bombs to left, and just a few fliners to left-center and right-center. Granted, his three 2019 oppo HRs were pretty lucky: an inside-the-parker, a Yankee Stadium special, and a well-hit but wind-blown fly ball literally off the top of the fence in KC. But at least he gave those two that got over the fence a chance; in 2020, barely anything got close unless he pulled it. No triples in 2020, and very few doubles. Given his batted balls in 2020, he simply didn’t earn many extra base hits. Here are Merrifield’s 2020 airball outs:

Not a lot getting to the fences, and a lot of medium contact. Via Fangraphs, he basically swapped 16% of his Hard air contact for Medium contact:

Merrifield still spread the ball around, and still kept his launch angle tight enough to get a bunch of singles and not tank his batting average. But that drop in hard contact, especially to center field and right field, killed his extra base hit rate. Why did this happen?

To circle back to the beginning: Merrifield had a lot less power versus fastballs, unless he pulled them. Versus fastballs, when he didn’t pull it, his exit velocity was down nearly 2 mph, and his iso was down 0.169 points.

year	ba	iso	babip	slg	woba	xwoba	xba	Exit Velo	Launch Angle
2019	0.390	0.238	0.375	0.628	0.420	0.449	0.408	89.8	29.0
2020	0.397	0.069	0.397	0.466	0.369	0.396	0.404	88.0	29.3

So, am I now out on Merrifield in 2021 at his current ADP? I am no longer blowing off the Merrifield doubters, and I won’t push him up, but if I want my speed early and he is there, I may still grab him. If all he hits is homers and singles, his BA may drop a bit, and he will likely be a worse hitter, but it may not hurt his SB total. And, 2020 may have been a bit fluky – Merrifield’s swing maybe could have just been a bit off, and he may regain a bit of his oppo fly ball and liner oomph. If I want SBs at that point, I am still buying, but hopefully at around pick 45 rather than pick 35.