Who? Anthony Misiewicz was very good in 2020. This fact is not reflected (nor should it necessarily be) in his prospect graduation one-liner at Fangraphs: “After exhausting his rookie eligibility in 2020, Misiewicz projects as a low-leverage multi-pitch bullpen lefty.” Based on his minor league background, that is who he should be, and he may yet be that, but that is not at all what he was in 2020. Because in addition to being very good in 2020, Anthony Misiewicz was also nearly unique in his pitch mix – or at least as unique as we can say anyone is in a 20 IP sample size.
Rotowire hints at there being more there to Misiewicz in their 2021 outlook: “(Misiewicz) logged a solid 4.05 ERA, but his 3.04 FIP and 3.27 SIERA were even more encouraging. Misiewicz has a middling 94.1 mph average fastball velocity, but his cutter is his primary pitch, and he leans heavily on his curveball as well.”
Misiewicz certainly featured the cutter: he threw it 52.7% of the time (all data gathered via Fangraphs). What is so unique about featuring a cutter? Not much, these days, but if one narrows it down to those pitchers that really FEATURE the cutter, the list is actually pretty short: of the 412 pitchers that slung at least 15 IP in 2020, only 20 used the cutter for at least 40% of their offerings (if one fudges it to 39.9% to include Yusei Kikuchi). At around 40% cutter usage there are a few three- (or more) pitch guys, but Misiewicz was basically the only three-pitch guy in 2020 with a cutter rate greater than 50%.
In order to come up with a larger set of Misiewicz pitch mix comparables, I lowered the bar to 30% cutter usage and tossed out all pitchers with 5% or greater changeup usage (Misiewicz had a changeup in the minors, but threw zero in MLB in 2020):
What is immediately obvious on this list is that four additional guys need to go, as they basically don’t even throw their fastball. This is actually pretty instructive, because it gives us an indication of one thing Misciewicz was not in 2020: he was not a “Mark Melancon” (cutter-breaker-only guy).
Misiewicz Comps, sorted by lack of fastball Usage:
| Name | Team | Fastball% | Cutter% | Slider+Curveball% | SplitFinger+Changeup% |
| Will Harris | WSN | 0.0% | 77.7% | 22.3% | 0.0% |
| Andre Scrubb | HOU | 0.0% | 52.6% | 47.4% | 0.0% |
| Colten Brewer | BOS | 2.0% | 45.3% | 52.4% | 0.4% |
| Mark Melancon | ATL | 3.4% | 54.5% | 38.7% | 3.4% |
| Josh Tomlin | ATL | 19.5% | 50.8% | 26.1% | 3.7% |
| Brooks Raley | – – – | 23.2% | 44.3% | 28.8% | 3.6% |
| Anthony Misiewicz | SEA | 24.1% | 52.7% | 23.2% | 0.0% |
| Yu Darvish | CHC | 24.8% | 40.2% | 27.0% | 7.9% |
| Brandon Workman | – – – | 26.3% | 34.2% | 39.5% | 0.0% |
| Alex Colome | CHW | 28.3% | 71.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kenley Jansen | LAD | 28.5% | 61.9% | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| Travis Lakins | BAL | 32.6% | 41.9% | 22.3% | 3.2% |
| Dan Winkler | CHC | 33.1% | 55.9% | 10.7% | 0.3% |
| Cy Sneed | HOU | 36.1% | 33.4% | 28.9% | 1.5% |
| Josh Osich | – – – | 37.2% | 47.7% | 15.1% | 0.0% |
| Yusei Kikuchi | SEA | 37.7% | 39.9% | 16.1% | 6.3% |
| Chris Mazza | BOS | 38.9% | 30.0% | 27.9% | 3.2% |
| Shawn Armstrong | BAL | 43.0% | 46.0% | 11.0% | 0.0% |
| Tommy Hunter | PHI | 43.2% | 33.7% | 23.2% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Tepera | CHC | 46.1% | 43.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% |
| Jacob Barnes | LAA | 46.6% | 51.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Jesse Chavez | TEX | 49.3% | 31.7% | 13.7% | 5.2% |
| Kyle Ryan | CHC | 52.6% | 38.8% | 8.6% | 0.0% |
| Justin Wilson | NYM | 59.4% | 37.1% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
After removing the Melancons, I then lopped off the guys with less than 10% breaking ball usage. This is more than a bit arbitrary, as it removes Kenley Jansen and keeps Dan Winkler, for example. But we all know that Jansen is really a two-pitch guy, with just the occasional slider (12% usage in 2019 was his career high), and not that I particularly care about Dan Winkler right now, but his 10.7% 2020 slider rate was a career low (maybe he turned into a 2-pitch guy in his 18 IP in 2020, but historically, his slider rate is more like 20%). Anyway, I am also removing the “Alex Colomes” (cutter-fastball-only guys).
Minus the Melancons, and now sorted by lack of breaking ball usage. The first six guys below will also get axed:
| Name | Team | FB% | CT% | SL+CB% | SF+CH% |
| Alex Colome | CHW | 28.30% | 71.70% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Jacob Barnes | LAA | 46.60% | 51.50% | 1.00% | 1.00% |
| Justin Wilson | NYM | 59.40% | 37.10% | 3.50% | 0.00% |
| Ryan Tepera | CHC | 46.10% | 43.60% | 5.10% | 5.10% |
| Kyle Ryan | CHC | 52.60% | 38.80% | 8.60% | 0.00% |
| Kenley Jansen | LAD | 28.50% | 61.90% | 9.60% | 0.00% |
| Dan Winkler | CHC | 33.10% | 55.90% | 10.70% | 0.30% |
| Shawn Armstrong | BAL | 43.00% | 46.00% | 11.00% | 0.00% |
| Jesse Chavez | TEX | 49.30% | 31.70% | 13.70% | 5.20% |
| Josh Osich | – – – | 37.20% | 47.70% | 15.10% | 0.00% |
| Yusei Kikuchi | SEA | 37.70% | 39.90% | 16.10% | 6.30% |
| Travis Lakins | BAL | 32.60% | 41.90% | 22.30% | 3.20% |
| Anthony Misiewicz | SEA | 24.10% | 52.70% | 23.20% | 0.00% |
| Tommy Hunter | PHI | 43.20% | 33.70% | 23.20% | 0.00% |
| Josh Tomlin | ATL | 19.50% | 50.80% | 26.10% | 3.70% |
| Yu Darvish | CHC | 24.80% | 40.20% | 27.00% | 7.90% |
| Chris Mazza | BOS | 38.90% | 30.00% | 27.90% | 3.20% |
| Brooks Raley | – – – | 23.20% | 44.30% | 28.80% | 3.60% |
| Cy Sneed | HOU | 36.10% | 33.40% | 28.90% | 1.50% |
| Brandon Workman | – – – | 26.30% | 34.20% | 39.50% | 0.00% |
That leaves 13 comps, and Misiewicz, with former starter Josh Tomlin the closest comp, purely based on 2020 pitch mix. If we limit this to the single-inning-relief-pitchers (SIRPS), we are left with a few guys somewhat close to Misiewicz’s mix – not super close, but somewhat; and in a 20 IP season, I probably shouldn’t limit this much more. What we do see is that some guys have made this approach work at least well enough to stick around. And also… Yu Darvish (he adds in the splitter and change at a total of 8%, but has morphed into a cutter-first guy, for sure), so there is that. As well as Misiewicz’s teammate, Yusei Kikuchi, which is kind of cool, but (probably) a coincidence.
Final Misiewicz comp list, sorted by cutter usage:
| Name | Team | FB% | CT% | SL+CB% | SF+CH% | Who’s this Guy? | Career FIP |
| Dan Winkler | CHC | 33.10% | 55.90% | 10.70% | 0.30% | journeyman SIRP** | 3.91 |
| Anthony Misiewicz | SEA | 24.10% | 52.70% | 23.20% | 0.00% | We don’t yet know | 3.04 |
| Josh Tomlin | ATL | 19.50% | 50.80% | 26.10% | 3.70% | journeyman swingman | 4.65 |
| Josh Osich | – – – | 37.20% | 47.70% | 15.10% | 0.00% | journeyman SIRP | 5.02 |
| Shawn Armstrong | BAL | 43.00% | 46.00% | 11.00% | 0.00% | journeyman SIRP | 4.28 |
| Brooks Raley | – – – | 23.20% | 44.30% | 28.80% | 3.60% | He is… interesting | 5.43* |
| Travis Lakins | BAL | 32.60% | 41.90% | 22.30% | 3.20% | Righthanded Misiewicz? | 3.83 |
| Yu Darvish | CHC | 24.80% | 40.20% | 27.00% | 7.90% | Superstar, but maybe a comp? | 3.43 |
| Yusei Kikuchi | SEA | 37.70% | 39.90% | 16.10% | 6.30% | This too is interesting | 5.17 |
| Brandon Workman | – – – | 26.30% | 34.20% | 39.50% | 0.00% | Also, sort of, RHP Misiewicz? But too many BBs | 3.90 |
| Tommy Hunter | PHI | 43.20% | 33.70% | 23.20% | 0.00% | Former starter. He’s had a good run as a SIRP | 4.29 |
| Cy Sneed | HOU | 36.10% | 33.40% | 28.90% | 1.50% | Young SIRP. Pitching in Japan in 2021. | 4.78 |
| Jesse Chavez | TEX | 49.30% | 31.70% | 13.70% | 5.20% | journeyman swingman | 4.38 |
| Chris Mazza | BOS | 38.90% | 30.00% | 27.90% | 3.20% | Longtime minor leaguer. Might carve out a swingman role | 4.00 |
| * Raley spent five years in the KBO, so his career FIP is pretty meaningless **SIRP = Single Inning Relief Pitcher |
So, is Misciewicz unique? He used a rare approach in 2020, but not quite unique. If he does it again in 2021 (50%+ cutters and 20%+ for both the fastball and the breaker) we shall revisit things. The primary takeaway may be that Misiewicz seems adaptable. This is good. He was previously pegged as (at best) a multi-pitch swingman with so-so stuff. Presumably he pitched off his fastball coming up through the minors with multiple usable pitches, but nothing plus. When moved to a SIRP role at the MLB level, the fastball took a backseat (but with some added mph), and he completely ditched the changeup… and integrated a cutter as his primary pitch (a pitch that wasn’t even listed in his 2020 prospect report – did he just learn it last year and then throw it over 50% of the time?).
Why did this work? I didn’t try to get into that too deeply. But on the surface it makes sense: he threw strikes, he threw hard, and he wasn’t predictable: he was 63% cutter on the first pitch of the at bat, and on 1-2 and 3-2 counts to LHHs he threw the cutter on 20 out of 22 pitches; but while he still emphasized the cutter in other situations, it was more 30%/30%/40% FB/CB/CT in other situations.
Maybe he’ll keep the same approach in 2020. Maybe he’ll pull out the changeup occasionally versus RHP (RHH hit him hard, but with a very good 20.5% K-BB% versus RHH – given the small sample it is hard to say how indicative the ball-in-play data is). Overall, his cutter was pretty good, his fastball did not get hit (almost literally), and his curve had bad results (but what can we really tell from ten fastballs hit into play and 22 curveballs in play?). Whatever the case, going into the 2021 season his role seems secure as the high leverage LHP for the Mariners. He doesn’t really walk guys (2.7 BB/9) (and never has: 2.5 BB/9 in MiLB). So if he keeps his fastball velocity above 94 mph (about average for a reliever these days, but definitely above average for a lefty reliever), while the curveball may be a crapshoot, it looks like the cutter and the fastball (and the control) are good enough for him to keep that role.
I’ve been drafting Misiewicz at the very end of NFBC 50-round Draft Champions contests (like this one), and as the LHP setup guy in front of a RHP closer, I expect him to stumble into a few saves (it may be on my bench, but such is often the case for a 50th round pick). He should be on your radar in that format, and also on your watchlist in any format that rewards holds.
Jay Stellmach's Fantasy Baseball Musings 