NFBC 50 Round Draft Champions – 2021.3

This is the third in an at least six-part series of posts going over my 2021 NFBC Draft Champions rosters (at least six parts since I plan on having six or more DC teams). If you missed the first post, and/or the second post, go ahead and check those out as well – they offer a bit of background on the NFBC DC format, as well as my (brief, yet successful) DC results from 2019 and 2020. One point to briefly repeat here: NFBC rosters lock for pitchers weekly, but allow the hitting lineup to be changed after Thursday each week.

This draft was actually my first 2021 DC – the other two written up so far went pretty quickly (all three were a four-hour clock between picks for the first 30 rounds and two hours for rounds 31-50), and this one lagged, and lagged… to the point that it took five days longer. Yikes. But that’s just the way it goes sometimes.

For this draft, I went against my normal inclination and preferred an early draft slot, and got my second choice (third) via the NFBC’s Kentucky Derby Format (KDF). Here is how it went.

Pick 3: Juan Soto. As expected, Acuna and Tatis went 1/2, and I was dead set on taking Mookie Betts at pick 3. Mookie is the better player, but Soto is the better hitter. Nothing really to analyze – it was just a gut pick.

Pick 28: Blake Snell. I wanted to get a share of Blake Snell, and I had just experienced Snell going at pick 19 in my first-completed draft. So I jumped on him at 28. Bummer that I couldn’t predict the future to realize I would be able to get him at pick 49 in the other draft covered a few days ago. He was the 9th SP of the board in this draft – maybe a bit early, and I know the drawbacks, but I have him as a toss-up with the next several SPs taken.

Pick 33: Whitt Merrifield. I love Whit Merrifield, and (mostly) trust that the SBs he provides will keep coming. I plan on digging deeper on why I love Whitt at some point.

Pick 58: Corbin Burnes. After the initial rush on aces, SPs were not especially flying off the board (OFs were, and I missed out on the OFs of that tier), so Burnes was there for my #2SP as the 21st SP taken.

Pick 63: Liam Hendricks, at right around ADP. Sometimes I hit RP early. I have some mild trepidation due to his changing home parks, but he should be great.

Pick 88: Edwin Diaz (ADP: 76). So, I doubled-up on high end closers for the heck of it. And ended a bit of a closer run (5th RP taken). Obviously, this could blow up in my face, or be fantastic.

Pick 93: Framber Valdez (ADP: 84). Is Framber worth the 31st SP pick (he’s 29th by ADP)? I think so, and plan on writing more about that in the coming weeks.

Pick 118: Ramon Laureano (ADP: 135). He went right after Byron Buxton and Wil Myers and the round before Dylan Carlson and Kyle Lewis (and two rounds prior to Tommy Pham). 2020 was a weird year for Laureano: 44% Hard Hit rate prior to his suspension, and 30% after. This is not especially encouraging:

Pick 123: Travis d’Arnaud (ADP: 150). He was ridiculous last year: .392 wOBA, which he seemingly mostly earned (Statcast Hard Hit rate was 58%). Can he repeat it? Probably not. And his plate appearances would have pro-rated to 496 PA in a 162-game season, while he has topped 400 PA in a season just once in his career. But it is fun to dream on elite production from a catcher.

Pick 148: Tommy Pham (ADP: 117, Max: 133 (blown out of the water by my pick)). In a DC, I spend a fair amount of effort balancing categories, and getting depth. But sometimes (really, as much as one can), just grab the value, especially in the first ten rounds. Pham fell too far. He may be risky, but, as shown by ADP, his combo of skills really should go a lot higher than pick 148.

Pick 153: Kevin Gausman (ADP 114, Max: was 139, soon to be 153). Not without risk, but I needed SP, and this pick was as obvious as possible.

Pick 178: Ha-seong Kim (ADP: 161). This was prior to Profar signing with San Diego. Kim’s ADP was more like 150 during the time I made the pick. I still feel ok with it – I wanted at least one share of him, for his multi-category upside and likely multi-positional eligibility.

Pick 183: Jean Segura (ADP: 196). Potential multi-category contributor. Potential “meh.” Will be SS/2B/3B eligible. Which may not do me much good, as I sort of neglected to get another decent 3B.

Pick 208: Andrew McCutchen (ADP: 204). Average BA. Average SB. Average HR. Hopefully plus in R+RBI. An average-ish pick.

Pick 213: Miguel Sano (ADP: 195). Time to check in to see if I have enough BA and SB to cover for the Sano pick. Soto and Merrifield provide a good BA base, with assistance from d’Arnaud. The rest of my hitters so far should be ok for BA. Batting average is fickle. SBs: …yeah, it really depends: Merrifield, Pham, Laureano, Segura, McCutchen, Kim, and Soto all should contribute. Could be very good – maybe even good in the overall contest (but none are sure things). Possibly a bit light on HR to this point, thus, the Sano pick.

Pick 238: Jose Urquidy (ADP 280). He requires a somewhat deep dive. He had a positive Covid test and an uneven start to 2020. His Ks were way down, possibly due to diminished velocity on his slider. All his ERA estimators were bad, and one could chalk his shiny ERA up to luck. But… from an actual results standpoint, he was great (except for the low Ks). It is a small sample, but over his first two MLB years he has thrown four pitches at least 12% of the time each, and they all have had positive pitch values. He got pop ups, and he got a ton of medium contact. Lots of flyballs, but mostly not hard-hit: Across 2019+2020 – 19 soft, 38 medium, 32 hard (with 9 HR allowed). Is that good? I think so. Compare with a random RHP sinker-baller: 70 Hard Hit FB (2019-2020) with 31 HR (44%). Back to Urquidy: of his 32 Hard Hit FBs, only 9 were pulled (allowing 4 of his 9 FB HR, 44%) (RHP sinker dude: 31/70, for 21 out of his 31 HR allowed (68%)). I am sort of blathering, but the point is that even without decent Ks, Urquidy was good, and it was maybe not all luck based – he may have a skill of inducing medium-hit and non-pulled flyballs (which also really suits his home park). If he get the Ks back up, he could be a great bargain here. (Random RHP sinker-baller is Kyle Gibson, btw – I didn’t say “good” – Gibson was just the first pitcher I thought of).

Pick 243: Randall Grichuk (ADP: 197). Blurgh. This was prior to the Springer signing. I also have the max pick (252) on Grichuk in another DC. I really like Randal Grichuk. This could still work out.

Pick 268: Michael Pineda (ADP: 235). He’s good, and I was glad to get him at good value. Keeping it short here after the Urquidy ramble.

Pick 273: Alejandro Kirk (ADP: 298). Trying to protect BA. As Kirk’s playing time may be uncertain, I got a viable 3rd catcher early in the reserve rounds. I probably should have gotten a second 3B-eligible player here (Eduardo Escobar, Joey Wendle, and Kyle Seager all went prior to my next pick).

Pick 298: Wilmer Flores (ADP: 326). In addition to lack of 3B depth, I realized I only had one 1B-eligible player at this point. Got Flores for his additional 2B eligibility; and, he can hit. It would help his playing time if the NL gets the DH (and this pick was before the Tommy La Stella signing). San Francisco will be Platoon City, even with the DH, and playing time may be scarce if no DH. Two picks in a row that are not looking fantastic.

Pick 303: Tejay Antone (ADP: 324). Intriguing skills, and great results in a small sample. Role is uncertain – outside chance at saves, but likely more valuable to Reds in a multi-inning role.

Pick 328: Lucas Sims (ADP: 328). Three-pitch RP with decent Ks and WHIP. Has a decent chance at saves. Also spreading my shares around a bit, as I got Amir Garrett at about the same spot in another DC.

Pick 333: Brandon Belt (ADP: 336). Depending on how playing time shakes out in SF, I plan on using Belt in partial weeks where SF is facing more right-handed pitchers, and using Wilmer Flores when SF is facing more LHP.

Since Belt and Flores are basically a platoon, my starters go 24 rounds deep: Pick 358: Nico Goodrum (ADP: 373). 2B/SS eligible. He should contribute in four categories, while he kills me in batting average. He should give up switch hitting, or be sat versus RHP. I will need to get some decent infield reserves to make sure I don’t need to play Goodrum versus too many RHPs.

Notable reserve picks (fully listed in the picture below):

• Jared Oliva in round 26. He should get a chance to play in Pittsburgh. Decent chance for a good total of SBs.
• Orlando Arcia (round 27). Infield depth. Arcia was actually ok last year. Best K% of career and lowest O-Swing%. Exit velocity and Flyball % at career highs.
• Luis Torrens (round 28). He’s my decent third catcher in case Kirk does not thrive.
• Donovan Solano (round 29). Playing time may be weird in SF, but Solano should help in batting average.
• Nolan Jones (round 32). I hope he solves my lack of depth at 3B. He should be up by mid season, if not sooner.
• For the third time in three DC drafts, I got Dexter Fowler with Lane Thomas. The Fowler trade to LAA may actually help this be a non-stupid idea.
• Leury Garcia (round 37) and Adam Engel (round 39). More possible platoons/handcuffs.
• My third share of Hansel Robles (round 41). I thought he might get some save chances in MN. After the Alex Colome signing, it will likely take an injury for that to happen (in addition to Robles actually being good again).
• Taylor Trammell (round 43). He could be playing nearly full time and providing SBs by mid season.
• Jonah Heim (round 45). A fourth catcher prior to the very endgame picks. Heim may be better than five or more of the starting catchers in MLB.
• Anthony Misiewicz (round 49). Misiewicz produced a 23% K-BB% rate in the short 2020 season, and he looks lined up to be Seattle’s high-leverage LHP RP. Prior to 2020, Fangraphs had a 35 future value on him, pegging him as a multi-inning low leverage guy, but his stuff seemed to play up in the 1-IP role he had last year. I hope he meanders into a few saves when the opposing team is left-handed batter heavy in the 9th inning.