NFBC 50 Round Draft Champions – 2021.2

This is the second in an at least six-part series of posts going over my 2021 NFBC Draft Champions rosters (at least six parts since I plan on having six or more DC teams). If you missed the first post, go ahead and check it out as well – it offers a bit of background on the NFBC DC format, as well as my (brief, yet successful) DC results from 2019 and 2020. One point to briefly repeat here: NFBC rosters lock for pitchers weekly, but allow the hitting lineup to be changed after Thursday each week.

This draft was actually my third 2021 DC (and the first writeup was my second) – I did my first three DC drafts in quick succession, but the second went very fast, while the first lagged… and lagged… and lagged.

For the first draft (which has yet to finish (checks…yep, still more than ten rounds to go)), I went against my normal inclination and preferred an early draft slot, and got my first second choice (fourth third) via the NFBC’s Kentucky Derby Format (KDF). That thrilling recap post will come out in a day or two (or whenever that sloooow draft gets around to ending). For this one, I preferred the tenth pick (which is likely about where I think I will generally want to be), and got the 12th pick dealt to me. Close enough, and here is how it went.

I already went pitcher-pitcher for my first two picks in my first-completed DC draft, and didn’t plan to do so again. But I switched plans when Shane Bieber fell to me at pick 12, and Yu Darvish was still there at pick 19. My 3rd- and 4th-ranked SPs, and pretty near max picks for each (max picks since 1/1/21 are 13 and 23, respectively). Also diversified my portfolio, as I picked Aaron Nola and Walker Buehler in my other completed DC draft. Easiest picks of the season, maybe. End of analysis.

Pick 42: Corey Seager. I already got him at pick 45 in the other DC. Diversity is great, but so is Seager.

Pick 49: Blake Snell. My second Snell pick (I jumped him way up in the laggard draft). I am fairly in on Snell – expecting San Diego to give him a slightly longer leash than he had the past couple years in Tamp Bay. So I couldn’t let him pass (his January max pick is 54). Plus, I had a hankering for seeing what I’d do after going SP on 3/4 of my first picks.

Pick 72: Teoscar Hernandez (ADP: 76). On the list of “get at least one share of” players. Second-round upside, if he keeps the K% at or below 30%, and continues to chip in SBs (needed at least some potential SBs with Seager as my first hitter supplying approximately zero).

Pick 79: Yordan Alvarez. Also on the list of “get at least one share of” players. He helped win me a couple leagues two years ago. My team really needs some SBs though, as of round 6.

Pick 102: Dylan Moore. ADP: 120, with a range of 78 to 154… that about says most of what people think of Dylan Moore. Maybe a risky pick, but I needed the SB potential. He made a swing/approach change last year, and it (obviously) worked, at least in the small-sample season of 2020.

Pick 109: Will Smith (the catcher). Over the Dodgers’ first 45 games last year, Smith started 21 (he spent ten days on the IL), and batted higher than seventh in the order twice (sixth, both times). He started 12 of their final 16 games, and batted fifth nine times. 17 starts in 18 postseason games, each time hitting fifth. The Dodgers won’t work him like that all season, but any projection for Smith needs to be prorated up to at least 115 starts. Do that, and he should probably be the #2 catcher, and he is going two rounds later than Sal Perez.

Pick 132: Charlie Morton (ADP: 113). Quad Ace strategy? I guess he can’t be an “Ace” at this point, since he is unlikely to get 150+ IP. But he is my favorite pitcher of the past 20 years (all the way back to his previous Braves days). So I am fine with picking him here, at value.

Pick 139: Andres Gimenez (ADP: 152). Picked prior to Cleveland’s adding Cesar Hernandez (and Eddie Rosario). He has the 2B/3B/SS eligibility, and I expect he will play, and get me SBs… but maybe not until June. I made some picks later in the draft to try to cover the gap Gimenez’s possible time in the minors might cause.

Pick 162: Kirby Yates (ADP: 180). Made this pick right after he signed with Toronto (his pick range is 96 to 290). Between this and the Gimenez pick, I got the luck and the bad luck of drafting in January.

Pick 169: Ryan Mountcastle (ADP: 166). I sort of knew what Mountcastle did last year. Sort of, but not really. I had maybe played him in an occasional Orioles stack in DFS. I needed 1B and OF, and he provides that, and hopefully BA and some run production.

Pick 192: Trey Mancini (ADP:200). Umm, same rationale, more or less, as Mountcastle: I needed 1B and OF, and he provides that, and hopefully BA and some run production. And he should provide more HR than Mountcastle. And I am glad to have him on at least one team, to remind me to root for him in his return from battling colon cancer.

Pick 199: Aaron Civale (ADP:180). He throws six pitches and doesn’t walk people. The slider was bad in 2020, but it was fine in 2019. I am assuming that is a small sample thing where he hung a few that got whacked. Should probably look into that. Anyway, he should be fine, and Cleveland probably will stink a bit less than people feared a few weeks ago, so he should be a set it and forget it #5 guy most weeks.

Pick 222: Tanner Rainey (ADP 280). Sigh. I really liked Rainey coming into the year, and had him pegged as under-valued. Picking closers in January…

Pick 229: Hunter Dozier (ADP: 242). Will gain 3B eligibility a week into the season, so he helps with my possibly missing Andres Gimenez. Dozier’s numbers were down last year, but he had Covid, so I am hopeful he bounces back to nearer his 2019 production, including some chip-in SBs.

Pick 252: Randal Grichuk (ADP: 190). First of all, the NFBC tool is broken or something, because it lists Grichuk’s max pick as 230. 252!!! (update: I realized I wrote the initial post after my round 50 pick, but prior to my draft’s completion, thus, NFBC had yet to include my 252 Grichuk pick in the draft stats. With the draft complete, it has now been included) I love Grichuk, and was jazzed when he was still there (this was prior to the Springer signing ). Now, not so jazzed. He was really good last year (maybe a small sample, but the Jays’ announcers commented on his approach changes coming to fruition). Now he is really squeezed for PT, and might be the short side of a platoon.

Pick 259: Aaron Hicks (ADP: 278). A fully-healthy Hicks should be a top 200 pick, right? He has been fully healthy for one season? Oh. Ok. And he probably won’t supply BA. But c’mon! He went after Yasiel Puig! And Randal Grichuk, and that guy might not even play.

Pick 282: Jordan Romano (ADP: 278). After the Yates signing, so maybe I could have waited a bit, but I don’t fully trust Yates’ elbow, so I handcuffed him.

Pick 289: Jake Odorizzi (ADP: 290). I have Odorizzi in two of my three DC drafts so far. I might end up with 50% shares of him. May need to force myself to not draft him again. I like him, but might shoot for more upside in other drafts.

Pick 312: Tom Murphy (ADP: 328). For the second time, I decided to go with the Murphy / Luis Torrens tandem for my #2 catcher (got Torrens in round 25).

Pick 319: Amir Garrett (ADP: 295). He might get saves for the Reds. He might not. Lucas Sims went two picks before, and I somewhat hoped to pair Garrett with Tejay Antone in the next round. But Antone was picked one pick before me, so I went another direction, and will just hope for some saves for Garrett.

Pick 342 and pick 349 (round 23 and round 24): Brandon Belt and Austin Slater. Here I again repeated a strategy from another draft, basically platooning the two Giants. Really leaning into Slater getting enough PT to justify the pick, and get me in contention in SBs. And I sure hope the National League gets the DH, as that will help justify my evident propensity for picking Giants hitters.

Notable reserve picks (fully listed in the picture below):

• Chris Martin in round 26. No idea why he is going this late. He could lead the Braves in saves.
• Niko Goodrum (round 27) and Chad Pinder (round 33) to help with my possible infield depth issue. Neither will help in BA, but Goodrum should get some SBs, and it looks like Pinder may play nearly full time. Goodrum really needs to sit versus RHP though; his splits are ugly.
• Bryan Garcia and Gregory Soto (Rounds 30 and 31). All of Detroit’s saves? Maybe. Soto was good last year. Garcia was too, I guess. His numbers are weird. Need to look into him more.
• Daulton Jefferies in round 35. A main point of DCs (in addition to the competition, and the fun), is to re-learn the player pool. I sort of follow the A’s, and I had completely forgotten who the heck Jeffries was. And now, I really like this pick.
• Another strategy repeat, pairing Dexter Fowler with Lane Thomas in rounds 36 and 37.
• Daniel Norris in round 38. He was good last year. Yeah, as a long reliever, but he was very good – threw harder, and had (and trusted) a good change up.
• Keibert Ruiz in round 39. In case Will Smith gets hurt.
• Sam Haggerty in round 42. In case Dylan Moore stinks so bad he loses PT (or just consider this an SB dart throw).
• Adam Engel in round 44. He is currently listed as a starter for the White Sox. I should have paired him with Leury Garcia.
• Yairo Munoz, round 49. Another repeat pick. I am fairly certain Munoz is an actual good MLB hitter. And he should end up being multi-positional.
• Christian Arroyo, round 50. I am pretty sure Arroyo is not an actual good MLB hitter. But maybe I am wrong, and he might be the better bet than Munoz to be the Red Sox’ super-utility guy.