NFBC 50 Round Draft Champions – 2021.1

Over the past two years, I have had some success in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) 50-round Draft Champions (DC) format – standard Roto 5×5 categories, 15 competitors, with each team drafting 50 players for 23 roster slots, with no in-season roster additions. NFBC rosters lock for pitchers weekly, but allow the hitting lineup to be changed after Thursday each week.

The sample size is small (six contests, three each year), but I managed a league win in this format in each of 2019 and 2020 (and an additional third place finish). So in 2021 I am doubling down, and doing six or more of these contests, with my first draft (four- hours clock per pick for first 30 rounds) completed a few days ago.

In the NFBC DCs, draft position is done via “Kentucky Derby Format” (KDF), in which one ranks their preferred draft slot preference from first through 15th choice, with your priority then randomly chosen; so one gets some input (if lucky) into their draft positioning. In this one, I wanted something near the back end of the queue, and got the 15th pick. So here is a recap from picking on the back wheel.

I wanted to do at least one DC draft going pitcher-pitcher for my first two picks. Did so here with Nola and Buehler. Giolito and Bauer were still available. I had reasons for going Nola and Buehler, but basically it was mainly for diversity, assuming I will get Giolito and Bauer in a different DC league.

Starling Marte and Corey Seager at picks 45-46. Picking on the wheel I often shmoosh the two picks together in my mind. I really wanted a solid hitting foundation after starting SP-SP with my first two picks. These guys should provide a great batting average base, above average SBs (good/great from Marte, and basically zero from Seager), solid RBIs and HR, and outstanding Runs. I also considered DJ LeMahieu instead of Seager (draft was prior to DJL signing with NYY, so he was still available).

Things start to get weird after the first few rounds, as different drafters choose their teams. At picks 75-76 I went with Aroldis Chapman and Michael Conforto (both at approximate average draft position (ADP). Liam Hendricks, Josh Hader, and Edwin Diaz went at picks 53, 54, and 64. The next RP after my Chapman pick was Karinchak (pick 92). I don’t normally go closer early, but I am fine with the pick. Conforto should supply overall run production, BA and or/HR, and chip-in SBs. Fine average picks, but rounds 5-6 should not be the time to get overly complex.

Picks 105-106: Max Muncy and Byron Buxton (both at around ADP). I hope Conforto supplies BA, because these guys likely will not. Considered other power sources, but chose MM due to his 1B/2B/3B eligibility (maybe worth about a half-round tie breaker at this point of a DC). Buxton is either a great pick (if he stays healthy and steals 20+bags), or meh. I wanted at least one share of Buxton – he hit the crap out of the ball last year.

135-136: Tommy Edman and Nelson Cruz. Yikes, Nelson Cruz at 136? wtf? That was a max pick of Cruz for 1/10/21 to 1/30/21 date range (expand the date range, and his max pick is 139). He is old, therefore risky. Not signed yet, but he will have a full-time job. He went 58 picks later than JD Martinez and 57 later than Yordan Alvarez. I could not pass it up. Edman is more multi-positional goodness. I got him at around his ADP. Will play and score runs. I hope he gets the BA back up, and also steals 15+ bags.

165-166: Ian Happ and Craig Kimbrel (both at ~ADP). Kimbrel went 20 picks after Alex Colome, and Nick Anderson, and 26 after Matt Barnes. He could easily get more saves than those three combined. Happ is Conforto without the BA upside.

195-196: Chris Bassitt and Zach Eflin (yes, both at ~ ADP). I had neglected SP since double tapping aces at the 15/16 turn. This was kind of a dead zone in the draft, with a lot of hitters and RPs being picked. Bassitt is not going to get a ton of K’s, but he is just a good pitcher. I need to do a deep dive to research if anyone has come up with why that is (i.e., how he pretty consistently out performs his peripherals). Eflin? Well… 10.68 k/9 and 22.4% K%-BB%. A key quote from Mr. Eflin: “To be completely honest, I just stopped throwing [his curveball] like a baby.”

225-226: Miguel Sano and Buster Posey. Sano is a risk, but this was another max pick (people hate the Twins, maybe?), but he is one of like five guys with legit 50+ HR upside. I really hope Conforto and Edman provide BA…. Posey takes some explaining, as this was 25 picks ahead of ADP (I will keep mentioning ADP, but it really should be only a very basic guideline after pick 200, and just a helpful reminder to maybe not jump a guy too far after pick 400). So, Posey: His hip was jacked up for most of 2018, and he was not 100% in 2019 after hip labrum surgery. Will I get 2017 production? Probably not. But I am pretty confident he beats projections (~.265 BA) and is an overall asset in BA (and better than the average catcher for runs and RBI). One shouldn’t handcuff too much, even with 27 reserve slots, but I also picked Joey Bart in round 30 and Curt Casali in round 39 as Posey insurance. A lot of players wait and wait on catcher in a DC, and sometimes I do. But not in this draft.

255-256: Willi Castro and Tanner Rainey (insert sad face emoji here – not a note for blog editing, just insert it using your mind). First, Castro: I wanted another SS. Pretty sure he never hits .340 again, but .280 w/15 HR and 10 SBs is a reasonable expectation, if he keeps the Ks in check. Plus he is 3B eligible. Rainey: I am not the only one that made this bad pick (I only jumped ADP by six picks). I was very damn sure the Nats were not looking for a different closer. Drafting closers in mid-January is… adventurous.

285-286: Jake Odorizzi and Tom Murphy. Totally the SP and RP dart throw portion of the draft. A good team will sign Odorizzi (crosses fingers). He is good. Especially if he mostly avoids the third time through the batting order. Murphy: I had kind of forgotten about Murphy. In one of my Draft Champions, I will wait on catcher. As previously noted, it wasn’t this one. But I had a plan here, and we will see how it goes.

315-316: Brandon Belt and Austin Slater (ADP 336 and 361). I am platooning them. Seriously (well, kind of). How real was 2020 Brandon Belt? The metrics back up the results, but can he do it again? Probably not, but I am taking a shot. My Slater pick basically tied with his min pick (315). His 361 ADP is even 37 picks after teammate, Alex Dickerson. So, did this pick suck? Several good reasons for this pick: He steals bases; his batted ball metrics were great in 2020, as was his K-rate (21%). One can go overboard, but I love platooners in DCs: NFBC DCs have Monday and Friday lineup sets, so platooners are viable roster choices (he pairs well with Belt, and with Alex Dickerson, who was…my round 24 pick). The next five OFs picked: Edward Olivares, Justin Upton, Robbie Grossman, Myles Straw, and my pick of Alex Dickerson at pick 346. Some “meh” and some upside picks, but I’ll take Slater’s upside here.

Pick 345: Miles Mikolas. I already mentioned my round 24 Alex Dickerson pick – he and Slater are basically one player, so my initial starting lineup goes through round 24, essentially. Mikolas is a bit forgotten at this point. Won’t help in Ks, but could be going 100 picks earlier at end of Spring Training. The Dickerson pick through round 50 is below.

Notable reserve picks:

• Max pick of Syndergaard at pick 406
• a 375 min pick for Jose Quintana
• Luis Torrens at pick 376 (to pair with Tom Murphy – hopefully the M’s will be somewhat predictable in when they start each catcher).
• Kyle Gibson, baby! The Rangers’ SP1, and my SP9. Hoping that a relatively normal year gets the good (or at least the less bad) version of Gibson.
• Dexter Fowler at 465. His ADP is 597. People know he still has a starting job, right? I handcuffed him with Lane Thomas at pick 705.
• Kimbrel handcuff Rowan Wick at pick 466.
• Hansel Robles at pick 615. I would put even money on his getting more saves than Tyler Duffey. I love Tyler Duffey (which is actually part of why I think Robles might get more saves).
• And multiple additional RPS, which exemplify my preference for RP dart throws over SP dart throws.

Why was John Gant there in round 50? Very happy to get him and his possible middle reliever wins.